So Iowa and New Hampshire are over! What does it all mean?
In Iowa, Clinton narrowly beat Sanders but effectively it was a draw. In Iowa, both Clinton and Sanders had a lot of advantages, so in hindsight it makes sense they would be so close there. New Hampshire is another story all together. Sanders demolished Clinton by around 20 points! Sanders has a lot of strength in the Northeast and that will pose serious problems. I am not sure anyone suspected just how deep that support went and New Hampshire proved it. It remains to be seen if he will have support outside of the Northeast, at least enough to challenge Hillary elsewere but for now Sanders is riding high and is causing a massive revival of the American Left. For a long time people have been wondering where the liberal tea party is and it has emerged around Sanders. Win or lose, liberals now know they have a major voice in the Democratic party, and Hillary Clinton has just heard it loud and clear.
For the first time in decades, Democrats are embracing the left and Hillary Clinton has no idea how to handle it. Sanders has spent much of his career trashing the Democratic Party for being part of the ruling class and now he is running for its nomination and doing quite well. I cannot overstate how huge this is. With such a big win in New Hampshire this will change a lot of things within the Democratic Party. First, Hillary now has a real race, no doubt about it and she will start acting like it. Two, Liberals within the party are upset and are no longer willing to play it safe with moderate candidates that do will in the general. Third, the super delegates still overwhelming favor Clinton and will be unlikely to change support to a man who has spent his career attacking them. If Sanders would win but super delegates deny him then it will cause a split within the Democratic Party. Fifth, and this cannot be overstated, no one can win the Democratic nomination without some support from Blacks and Latinos. They are the reason Democrats can win general elections and Sanders has spent his career attacking the party that has staked out its claim as a defender of minority rights. Furthermore, Sanders has made his battle about class, but many civil rights activists are in the middle class and know there is a racial imbalance in this country not caused by class. Both candidates have a lot of work to do, and Nevada and South Carolina will be their last chances before Super Tuesday and the marathon of races in March.
Now on to the Republicans. In Iowa, Cruz won by a comfortable margin while Trump and Rubio finished second and third with strong showings. At the time many thought Trump might have feet made of clay but now it looks like he is simply disorganized. This will hurt him in Caucus States but doesn’t appear to hinder him anywhere else. For Cruz, both wins show he has zero strength outside of Conservatives and evangelicals. This doesn’t bode well for him in the long term. Finally, it shows everyone else is in a free for all. There is not another consensus candidate and that is only good news for Donald Trump. In New Hampshire though, Trump crushed it. He won by 19 points and it will go a long way to making him the front runner again. Cruz got around 11.5% of the vote putting him in third. He will undoubtedly keep going and will most likely be in it till the end. Gilmore, Fiorina, and Christie are over though. None of them did very well and this was really their last chance to make a big splash. Ben Carson also did poorly, but he seems to have no idea what he is doing or is running to sell his book. Either way he will most likely stay in until he runs out of money…or he decides he needs a fresh shirt.
For me the real story out of New Hampshire has been who will emerge as the Anti-Trump. For months now it has see-sawed between Christie, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush. We now know Christie has lost that fight. Bush and Rubio have come very close to a tie, coming to within a thousand votes of each other. It is hard to see either justifying staying in the race with such weak showings. While both have plenty of money and a strong organization they don’t really have a path to victory anymore, primarily because of such a strong showing from John Kasich. He is over ten-thousand votes ahead of Bush and while he is far behind Trump this puts him well ahead of the rest of the more moderate candidates. This is huge and is a major win for John Kasich. I have no idea what Rubio or Bush will do at this point but New Hampshire has put a major damper on their attempts to take the White House. The race, outside of Trump in the GOP, is a confused mess and will be up to the candidates themselves how they find a way out it.
Trump’s and Sanders’s wins have been by 20 points and utterly crushed their opponents. I had to sleep on the results of this because of just how huge they were. First off, the New Hampshire primary is where moderates in the Republican party shine. A big Trump win there over a crowded field is a big wake up call and frankly, unless they want Trump as their nominee they need to get out before Super Tuesday. This should’ve been where moderates shined and Trump eclipsed them. If the field stays divided he will win, period. This cannot be argued anymore. Donald Trump is a real and viable candidate. He won’t self destruct, someone has to actually beat him and no one can if their logical base of support is divided by other candidates. On the Democratic side it has been where liberals have shined and tonight that was Sanders. He has awakened the left in a way that hasn’t been done since the 1970’s. Chuck Todd said it best when he mentioned the Democratic party was about a liberal hugging the center. Now its about a liberal being the most liberal. New Hampshire was an Earthquake for both parties, and will no doubt prompt a lot of soul searching from both parties.
The Delegate count right now for the Democrats is
Hillary: 394
Sanders: 42
needed to win 2382
The Delegate count on the GOP side is
Trump: 17
Cruz: 10
Rubio: 7
Kaisch: 4
Bush: 3
Carson: 3
Fiorina: 1
needed to win 1237
This thing is just getting started!
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