How Shifting Dune 2 Affects Warner Bros and More

While the rumor mill is already trying to point towards the ongoing strikes as the primary source of blame, it bears repeating that this situation is one that Warner Bros (WB) and the major studios created. So, what does this decision mean for their other projects coming out this year and how will it effect the ongoing strikes by the WGA and SAG-AFTRA respectively? Find out ahead

Dune: Part Two, the sequel to Denis Villenueve’s 2021 adaptation was originally scheduled for November 3rd, 2023. However, WB, likely looking at the prospect of zero celebrity press to back the film if the strike continues into September and beyond, have officially announced their decision to move the film to March 15th, 2024. In doing so, Dune: Part Two is taking over the date they held for Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, which will now release April 12th, 2024.

Now, if you were to ask me if publicity tours actually get butts into seats, I would argue no. They do generate content that you can use elsewhere, like the recent cast tours of Barbie and Oppenheimer that provided plenty of material for various outlets that got people interested (aside from the memes). However there aren’t many people tuning in specifically for the press junket when it airs, most of that is after the fact. If WB wanted, they could find other ways to generate content for the film and get the word of mouth built without using their cast, but I digress…

Point Blame In The Right Direction

So what does this shift mean aside from obvious calendar moves? WB will try to use this as leverage or as a media narrative against the unions in their ongoing negotiations. With the strikes, it’s important that we frame this situation correctly so that the writers and actors fighting for equal compensation aren’t thrown under the bus (especially given the egregious meeting just held by the AMPTP this week).

Technically, yes the movie is being moved because WB wants their stars to promote the film and they are unavailable due to the strike. But we should always follow that up with this: they are unavailable because WB refused to come to the table for months and didn’t consider counterproposals or any awwreasonable course of actions. So, if we’re going to say the strike caused this, we need to directly point at the studios that allowed this situation to fester.

I’m sure the whole cast of Dune would much rather be doing their jobs right now just like the various casts of WB properties (that all released much too close to one another, like the recent pile up of Barbie, Meg 2, and Blue Beetle) that are currently sidelined from doing promotions. Especially in the case of Blue Beetle, as one of the first solo outings for a Mexican American character and having the cast silenced this whole time is a real gut punch.

Until the AMPTP gets their act together and holds good faith negotiation sessions, we can expect the strike to get uglier and dragged out further and further, eventually impacting every studios’ bottom line and stressing the limits of every single union member.

The Marvels Might Benefit

While Dune moving is definitely a sour note for filmgoers, it could help a lot of films’ trajectory in the fall, starting with Disney’s The Marvels. Due to the previous theater deal in place, Disney didn’t have full access to every IMAX screen. Dune moving opens up more IMAX screenings for the sequel and more breathing room in the month of November, where it will only face the prequel Hunger Games movie entitled The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.

While Marvel hasn’t faced the same sort of issues like DC’s recent failures with Shazam 2 (2023) or The Flash (2023), their box office hauls haven’t been the usual massive, record-setting debuts they are used to. With the biggest contender in that month gone, Marvels should have more breathing room

Godzilla Will Not Forgive

When looking at Dune‘s box office of $402 million from 2021 when we were exiting the pandemic, WB likely wants this film to have every chance of having a lengthy run. However, scheduling it closer to the summer blockbusters is just baffling. Assuming that Dune had a chance to reach the $1 Billion club, it’s going to get undercut by so many spring releases, like WB’s own Godzilla x Kong release. Given how shaky the 2023 summer box office has been regarding the various flops and incomplete data on why some films did or did not resonate with audiences, this seems like an incredibly dangerous and foolish decision with one of their more popular IPs.

Granted, the logic here may be aimed at beating other studios for space and dates in 2024 in case there’s an inevitable run in the fall of movie rescheduling. But this seems primed to create another overpacked summer box office in 2024 when we were finally starting to stabilize from the COVID calendar delays.

What Happens To Aquaman or Wonka?

If Dune moving was due to a lack of press and uneasiness over committing their full marketing budget, then it makes the calendar for Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom or Wonka murkier, both of which are scheduled to come out this December. These two films are hitting different demographics and offer a variety for the winter box office so it made sense why they could be scheduled close together. Aquaman‘s box office in 2018, making $1.1 billion worldwide ($335 million domestic, $813 million internationally) is a likely reason they won’t move it, as the audience may be built in enough that even with a lackluster marketing campaign, they can still achieve a decent return.

That’s also compounded by Warner Bros’ loses this year with Shazam 2, The Flash, and presumably Blue Beetle (which is currently out in theaters and facing an uphill climb) and the DCU shift towards James Gunn and Peter Safran’s vision. It’s hard to tell how much of the issues lie with overall audience distaste over the vision of DC, the individual movie qualities, star power problems (like Ezra Miller), incompetence in marketing from WB, but the answer likely lies somewhere in-between. In spite of this, WB is going to be forced to take whatever loss or profit they can get from Aquaman this winter or risk greater losses going into 2024 and affecting the calendar even more.

Final Thoughts

Shifting the movie calendar at any time can be a mixed bag depending on the parties involved. WB management blunders the past few years though have really highlighted this issue in recent years. They were successful in one area, shifting Barbie to compete with their previous star director Christopher Nolan, and have suffered in so many other areas like their entire DC slate as of late. While the Dune shift will be beneficial to Marvel, the slate of horror films coming out in October and even the recent news of Taylor Swift’s Era Tour concert coming to theaters, the outlook for WB has never looked more complex and uncertain.