2024 Summer Box Office Predictions

With the release of The Fall Guy last week, we’re officially in the start of 2024’s summer box office. Commander Shipp provides his insight and predicts where he thinks every movie will end up when the summer ends.

Hey movie fans, we gather once again to predict how the summer box office will pan out. While there’s no Barbenheimer-sized weekend expected, there’s still plenty of reasons to be excited about what’s happening this summer. So let’s take a quick snapshot of where things stand and what potential factors could affect one – or every – movie on this list.

I’ll say one caveat: I have seen the current box office results of The Fall Guy and got this prediction list out late (seen some of the early returns on Apes as well), so if it ends up being prophetic, I had additional information compared to my peers.

How Should We Approach the Box Office in 2024?

Before Oppenheimer and Barbie came out last July, many analysts were laser-focused on the box office flops, like The Flash, Shazam, or Indiana Jones: Dial of Destiny. Later in the summer as films were releasing after the combined writers and actors strike, there were more movies impacted like Blue Beetle, which had nearly zero pre-marketing done by its cast and crew. Additionally, superhero films have taken a significant hit from their pre-2020 heydays, but certain films, like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, still hit with their fanbases and did well.

The overall box office worldwide has been rising since the COVID slump years, though it’s unlikely to hit 2019’s $11 billion dollar total. That year saw the release of two major Marvel films – Avengers: Endgame and Spider-Man: Far From Home – the final entry in the Star Wars sequel trilogy, Rise of Skywalker, along with billion-dollar hits like Joker, Frozen II, and The Lion King.

Summer 2024 doesn’t currently have anything on the calendar that will likely sniff that kind of success, especially given the up-and-down nature we’ve seen at the box office. The best approach for this year is to expect less, or project lower for every summer project and likely continue that trend into the fall season. There are fewer releases this year, so it’s entirely possible we may see a few movies debut with weaker weekends, but have stronger legs throughout the whole summer, resulting in longer box office runs overall.

The R-rated August

The old adage of R-rated movies not being financial blockbusters was mostly put to bed when Passion of the Christ (2004). The Matrix series earned worldwide success in the early 2000s, later followed by subsequent successful R-rated franchises like Deadpool or John Wick, and just last year with Oppenheimer (making just short of $1 billion dollars). However, some legacy R-rated series haven’t been as lucky, such as the Alien franchise, which sees a new release with Don’t Breathe (2016) director Fede Álvarez at the helm. Alien Covenant 2017), the last release in the franchise, made $240 million worldwide on a $97 million budget, barely breaking even.

Another issue? Scheduling.

We don’t tend to see major R-rated franchises bunched up together like they currently are in 2024’s August. Deadpool and Wolverine releases July 26th which will definitely affect August releases for Borderlands on August 9th and Alien Romulus on August 16th. We technically don’t know the rating for Borderlands yet, but it would be surprising if it didn’t retain its mature styling from the games, though a PG-13 rating would be more marketable. Considering that many US kids will be back in school or about to start, I would have preferred to see another kid-friendly movie in the mix as a counter. It would be a great mixture for that month, but as it stands, this trio is likely to cannibalize each other just a bit.

The Contenders

Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26th)

With no other Marvel or DC superhero movie being released this summer and the track record Deadpool has maintained, it’s likely this will be one of the highest-grossing R-rated movies ever released in the summer. Yes, superhero movies are down for sure, but the long-awaited pairing of Wolverine and Deadpool after years of Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman’s Twitter teasing should be enough to push this film into the top spot. It also has roughly 4 weeks between its release and Despicable Me 4, and while those crowds don’t completely overlap, if parents are largely worn out by Gru and the minions, they will be excited to try something else out or watch something with their older offspring.

Borderlands (August 9th)

While superhero movies have taken a few body blows, videogame adaptations seem poised as Hollywood’s next prized IP to squander. With successful TV adaptations like Fallout (2024) and The Last of Us (2023), and the billion-dollar success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023), Borderlands making a sizable dent in this year’s box office seems reasonable. Add in the fact that the Borderlands game series is already a billion-dollar IP, and there’s more reason to believe it will attract its core fanbase. We don’t currently know the rating for this adaptation, but given the fact its trailer has been tied to PG-13 movies and not with R-rated movie screenings suggests this may be headed for a tamer, PG-13 version of the movie akin to Guardians of the Galaxy vs a more raunchy R-rated, Suicide Squad-style movie.

Despicable Me 4 (July 3rd)

While I think we can make better movies for the children, I can’t deny the appeal Despicable Me and the Minions spin-offs, have on the box office. The franchise has grossed over $4.5 billion dollars, with its latest entry in 2022 – Minions: The Rise of Gru – earning just shy of a billion ($940 million). Even if there’s slight fatigue with the franchise, it’s unlikely to impact the earnings that much. For comparison, Kung Fu Panda 4 is sitting at $521 million worldwide, which is just $100 million shy of its first two entries, and when it finishes its box office run this year, it may end up fairly close behind those entries.

So, even if Despicable Me 4 doesn’t hit the same billion-dollar mark as previous entries have, it’s unfathomable that it won’t be close or still gross close to the $800-$900 million mark, accounting for this weaker box office.

The Cinderellas

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (May 10th)

People really started enjoying this soft reboot of the franchise, especially when director Matt Reeves took over the sequels Dawn and War, earning $710 and $490 million, respectively. That financial drop between releases is significant, though, which made a sequel to the trilogy seem unlikely and hard to predict if audiences would sign up for another chapter. However, if they enjoy it as much as past entries, this film can easily clear $400 million or more, competing well with other summer releases.
[Check out Commander Shipp’s review of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes here!]

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (June 7th)

Bad Boys has never been a financial juggernaut, especially with its first two entries, making $141 and $275 million, respectively. However, Bad Boys for Life changed that with a $426 million worldwide box office at the start of 2020. Here’s the complicated part though: how much of that success was a result of 2019’s box office hangover? Did 2020 impact Bad Boy‘s box office negatively or positively, considering it came out in January of that year and had nearly two or three uninterrupted months before everything shut down? Will the sequel do as well with more competition surrounding it compared to 2020? Given how unpredictable cinema appetites have been lately, I’m going to say it’s likely something in the middle, where franchise fans will show up early and general audiences will turn up intermittently throughout the summer.

My Ranking

With those explanations out of the way, here’s where I see things shaking out.

1. Despicable Me 4
   • $850 million
2. Deadpool and Wolverine
   • $750 million
3. Inside Out 2
   • $710 million
4. Borderlands
   • $680 million
5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
   • $390 million
6. Twisters
   • $360 million
7. Bad Boys Ride or Die
   • $340 million
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
   • $330 million
9. A Quiet Place: Day One
   • $290 million
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
    • $250 million

Headscratchers

I had a hard time figuring out where to place Furiosa, Twisters, or Quiet Place because audiences seem to love elements of these films, but that hype has to be put into context. For Furiosa, as much as we love Mad Max: Fury Road, that film only made $379 million back in 2015, coming in 21st on the worldwide box office. Quiet Place Part Two, the most recent series entry, made $297 million, which was impressive as one of the first films back in theaters that summer, but it’s hard to know how that success will translate into 2024. Lastly, audiences have historically loved a good disaster flick, and when Twister came out in 1996, it earned $494 million worldwide. However, with zero legacy characters connected to this new entry (Bill Paxton passed away back in 2017, and Helen Hunt wasn’t asked to return ), I’m not sure what the draw is other than Glen Powell’s immaculate cheekbones and double tornadoes.

Conclusion: Year of the Kids

It wouldn’t be the first time, but don’t be surprised if Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 just dominate the summer box office. With no major PG-13 superhero releases and tons of films that aren’t explicitly geared toward children, parents will likely make a choice for the family-friendly option and save the more adult options for later. This doesn’t mean that Deadpool and other R-rated or adult films won’t do well, but it does limit how successful they can be across demographics. However, it’s also not out of the realm of possibility that one of these films pops, and I’m willing to bet that Planet of the Apes is the best candidate for that kind of rise.

This summer is also difficult to predict because what the audience desires is clearly shifting, but what that shift is heading toward is anyone’s guess. Could it be video games? Sure, we outlined Super Mario‘s success, but that character is memorable and recognizable across multiple generations, does that translate to every videogame character? Probably not. How much will audiences react to legacy franchises like Apes, Twisters, or Beetlejuice? If last summer is any indication, then there’s plenty of reason to have pause and consider that they may not recoup their large budgets if The Flash and Indiana Jones could barely do that.

In a box office recovery that still has plenty of energy with certain genres and disappointment in others, children entertainment is poised to be the big winner this summer.

Thoughts?

How close do you think I am? Is there a movie on this list you think will explode towards the top? We won’t know for sure until we actually finish the summer, so come back here every Tuesday for an update on where the summer box office is headed. If you want to chat with me about the box office, I’m available on the Nerd Union Discord and I’m also posting these stats over on Linkedin to connect with other Hollywood analysts, so feel free to follow me over there if you like.

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